Colombia central bank nudges 2024 inflation outlook up to 5.5%
BOGOTA: The technical team of Colombia’s central bank slightly raised its inflation forecast for this year to 5.5% from a previous 5.4%, it said in a quarterly report published on Friday.
The forecast is below the South American country’s inflation rate of 7.36% for the 12 months through March but remains above the central bank’s long-term target of 3%.
By the end of 2025 the technical team – whose calculations inform decisions by the bank’s board when it votes on monetary policy decisions – expects inflation of around 3%, slightly above the previous estimate of 2.8%.
Upward risks remain for inflation, the report said, including the behavior of the exchange rate, adjustments to costs of public services and transport, and climate conditions that could also influence food prices.
The technical team raised its 2024 economic growth forecast to 1.4% from a previous estimate of 1.1% and forecast growth of 3.2% in 2025, bank board chief Leonardo Villar announced on Tuesday.
“In the first quarter of 2024 the economy will have improved compared to what was observed at the end of 2023, pushed by elevated levels of activity in the agriculture sector that reflect high supply registered in these months,” the report said.
Growth in the first quarter will have reached 0.3% year-on-year, the report said.
The central bank’s board cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 11.75% on Tuesday, taking total cuts since December – when it began easing policy – to 150 basis points.
According to a recent Reuters poll, analysts expect the benchmark rate to end 2024 at 8.25% and see the rate declining to 5.50% by the end of 2025.
The forecast is below the South American country’s inflation rate of 7.36% for the 12 months through March but remains above the central bank’s long-term target of 3%.
By the end of 2025 the technical team – whose calculations inform decisions by the bank’s board when it votes on monetary policy decisions – expects inflation of around 3%, slightly above the previous estimate of 2.8%.
Upward risks remain for inflation, the report said, including the behavior of the exchange rate, adjustments to costs of public services and transport, and climate conditions that could also influence food prices.
The technical team raised its 2024 economic growth forecast to 1.4% from a previous estimate of 1.1% and forecast growth of 3.2% in 2025, bank board chief Leonardo Villar announced on Tuesday.
“In the first quarter of 2024 the economy will have improved compared to what was observed at the end of 2023, pushed by elevated levels of activity in the agriculture sector that reflect high supply registered in these months,” the report said.
Growth in the first quarter will have reached 0.3% year-on-year, the report said.
The central bank’s board cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 11.75% on Tuesday, taking total cuts since December – when it began easing policy – to 150 basis points.
According to a recent Reuters poll, analysts expect the benchmark rate to end 2024 at 8.25% and see the rate declining to 5.50% by the end of 2025.
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